The West Doesn’t Wait—Can the Blazers Catch Up?

The confetti’s still settling in Oklahoma City, but the NBA has already turned the page. With the Thunder crowned champions in this years NBA Finals and Cooper Flagg headlining a fresh rookie class, the league is shifting from one chapter of its story to a new one. After the draft, the basketball world typically falls into a lull, with slow headlines until the start of free agency and Summer League. But for me—as both a writer and a fan—this is the time of year when my mind is in a nonstop loop, imagining what’s to come.

As a fan, I constantly flirt with the edge of hope—often finding myself tipping into delusion and denying all realities. Yet as a writer, I owe it to myself and others to deliver my honest truths and thoughts—not leaving out any details. So what are my honest thoughts for the 2025–2026 Portland Trail Blazers?

If I had to sum it up in one word: Bittersweet.

The Blazers team we watched this past season was a breath of fresh air. It wasn’t a group trapped in a never-ending tanking cycle—it was a team with purpose, focused on development and growth. Players improved, coaching improved (at least in the eyes of some), fan engagement improved, and most importantly, the team’s record improved. 15 wins separate the 36-46 and the 21-61 Blazers of the year prior. What can be bittersweet on such improvement? The Blazers play in the west, where it seems like everyone is improving.

Oklahoma City have reached the pinnacle of the NBA mountain for the first time and look like that will be their standard for the next five-plus years. The Minnesota Timberwolves, Houston Rockets, and Denver Nuggets will all be back competing at the top of the conference as well, and you can never count out LeBron or Luka when it comes to flirting with the 50-win mark. From the outside looking in—based on rosters and experience alone—the top five in the West is already looking pretty firm. The Golden State Warriors may be showing signs of decline, but with a duo of Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry, who’s to say they can’t still be a top-six seed?

Now, the play-in field is where the Blazers could be in the mix.

The Los Angeles Clippers’ timeline is creeping toward its end, but they still have two All-NBA caliber players in James Harden and Kawhi Leonard. The Memphis Grizzlies might be the only team that could be trending downward, especially after the departure of Desmond Bane, but they’re still further along in their process than Portland.

So there it is: a late play-in seed for the Blaz—

Not quite.

We can’t forget the Dallas Mavericks are not only coming back healthy next year, but they’ll also be adding one of the best NBA prospects in history in Cooper Flagg. GM Nico Harrison has already made it clear—they’re in win-now mode, and missing the playoffs is not an option.

Then there’s San Antonio. The Spurs have Victor Wembanyama, already a perennial MVP candidate at his age. They acquired De’Aaron Fox at the deadline to pair with Wemby and also roster the reigning Rookie of the Year, Stephon Castle. As if that doesn’t paint a clear enough picture, they just selected Dylan Harper out of Rutgers with the No. 2 overall pick and still hold the assets to trade for virtually anyone they desire. Giannis? Jaylen Brown? It might sound greedy to even entertain the list of stars the Spurs are reportedly linked to this summer—but the truth is, those moves are all very real possibilities..

And let’s not forget—these are two teams that missed the playoffs this past season. That’s not a knock on Portland—it’s just how uneven the NBA’s conference landscape really is.

Being a .500 team in the 2025–26 season would be a huge success for Portland. But in today’s Western Conference, that can luckily land you in the 9–10 seed range, while the same record in the East might get you as high as the 6–7 seed.

The Blazers are going to keep improving and developing this young core for years to come. But will the Western Conference ever open up and let them into the playoff party—let alone contention?

Don’t let me ruin your summer of looking forward to Blazers basketball—just make sure we appreciate the uphill journey ahead. Because as exciting as the climb may be, we’re still much closer to the bottom than the summit.

Am I just being pessimistic or do you agree with this? Let me know below!