Oregon Ducks Softball WCWS Preview

Whew. Version 7 of Oregon softball has finally moved past regional play and is ready to compete in the World Series in Oklahoma City. The Ducks are in Bracket 2 along with Ole Miss, Texas Tech, and UCLA. Let’s take a closer look at those teams.

Ole Miss

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Ole Miss had notable wins during the regular season against #13 Clemson, and series wins over #7 Arkansas and #24 Georgia. Their conference record was 11-13 and they only made it to the SEC quarterfinals, losing to Texas.

With a record of 35-16 and a season’s-end #21 ranking, the Rebels might seem like a sizable underdog. An examination of their RPI, however, reveals a smaller gap than one might suspect. Ole Miss has an RPI of 20, but Texas Tech is at 18 and Oregon is at 17. (The rest of the field in the WCWS is in the top 10).

The first knee-jerk reaction to all of this would be to point to SEC bias with the Rebels getting an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, and that would be completely understandable, but Ole Miss has acquitted themselves well with their opportunities in the tournament. They defeated Arizona in the Wildcats’ own regional, and then stunned Arkansas in the Fayetteville regional.

Pretenders do not reach Oklahoma City.

The Rebels have three pitchers that they rely on in more or less equal measure. They are:

• Miali Guachino – 146.2 IP, 3.44 ERA, 172 Ks, 81 BB, B/AVG .223
• Brianna Lopez – 133.1 IP, 2.94 ERA, 114 Ks, 81 BB, B/AVG .241
• Aliyah Binford – 111.1 IP, 3.58 ERA, 80 Ks, 50 BB, B/AVG .271

As a team, Ole Miss hits .306, and six hitters in their normal lineup hit .333 and above. They have 490 hits, 356 runs, 67 HR, .497 SLG%, and 77-89 SB-ATT. (By comparison, Oregon hits .351, nine batted .302 and above, with 561 hits, 482 runs, 85 HR, .588 SLG%, and 172-190 SB-ATT).

Texas Tech

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The Red Raiders finished their season with a 42-12 record, with an RPI and ranking of 18. They had wins over #25 Nebraska, #1 Texas A&M, #21 Oklahoma State, and a series win over #12 Arizona. What jumps out with TT is their postseason record, where they did not lose a game in the Big-12 tournament, the regionals, and the super regional.

In the regional, they won the first game against Brown and then both games against #22 Mississippi State. In the super regional, they dispatched #3 Florida State. The Red Raiders are on quite a roll in the postseason.

Pitchers boil down to NiJaree Canady and then everyone else. Canady has pitched 205.0 innings with an ERA of 0.89, 279 Ks, 41 BB, B/AVG .153. The other pitcher that we’ll likely see is Chloe Riasetto – 96.2 IP, 2.17 ERA, 39 Ks, 21 BB, B/AVG .263.

As a team, Texas Tech hit .326 and they have 11 batters that hit .300 and above, with 521 hits, 391 runs, 59 HR, .508 SLG%, and 104-138 SB-ATT. (By comparison, Oregon hits .351, nine batted .302 and above, with 561 hits, 482 runs, 85 HR, .588 SLG%, and 172-190 SB-ATT).

Canady is the best pitcher in the WCWS, closely followed by Tennessee’s Karlyn Pickens. She is other-worldly, and any team that wants to advance to the finals will have to find a way to get hits off her.

UCLA

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The Bruins finished their regular season with a 47-9 record. Big wins during the season came against #21 Oklahoma State, #19 Alabama, #10 Tennessee, #7 Arkansas, and #23 Ohio State (2-game sweep).

The Bruins reached the Big-10 tournament finals, where they were shut out 2-0 by Michigan. They won all three games of their regional, which sent them to South Carolina. UCLA lost the first super regional match against SC, and then won the Saturday and Sunday games, punching their 33rd ticket to OKC.

UCLA uses three pitchers in relatively equal measure:

• Kaitlyn Terry – 136.1 IP, 2.62 ERA, 159 Ks, 33 BB, B/AVG .219
• Taylor Tinsley – 127.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, 157 Ks, 19 BB, B/AVG .211
• Addisen Fisher – 113.2 IP, 2.59 ERA, 100 Ks, 41 BB, B/AVG .241

As a team, UCLA hits .344 with nine batters hitting .317 and above. They have 573 hits with 476 runs, 95 HR, .597 SLG%, and 38-45 SB-ATT. (By comparison, Oregon hits .351, nine batted .302 and above, with 561 hits, 482 runs, 85 HR, .588 SLG%, and 172-190 SB-ATT).

Toward the end of their season, the Bruins had series losses to Oregon and a head-scratcher against Northwestern, but have rebounded in the postseason.

Oregon

We know about the Ducks, so reiteration is not necessary here. This season, the pitching duties have fallen on Lyndsey Grein and Elise Sokolsky, so I’ll list their stats here. I’ll also list Staci Chambers, because she will also be used this weekend:

• Lyndsey Grein – 172.0 IP, 2.08 ERA, 222 Ks, 66 BB, B/AVG .182
• Elise Sokolsky – 146.2 IP, 2.00 ERA, 134 Ks, 41 BB, B/AVG .212
• Staci Chambers – 28.2 IP, 3.91 ERA, 40 Ks, 15 BB, B/AVG .234

The numbers on Chambers are a bit misleading. Last weekend she pitched lights-out, and to the level that the Ducks were hoping for when she transferred. An injury forced her out of the majority of the regular season and she endured some bumps in her initial relief outings since coming back, but she looks 100% when it’s going to count the most.

After six or so weeks of not-so-great pitching, Lyndsey Grein’s pitching was solid against Liberty. The Flames have very good offensive power, so to have her shut them down in the final game of the super regional also comes at the right time. She looked relaxed and confident, and she’ll need to maintain that in OKC.

Elise Sokolsky has been very steady in her pitching and has done well in relief of Grein when Grein has faltered, and that needs to continue.

Provided the pitching stays at a high level, the Oregon bats can’t slump against the field at the WCWS. Games tend to be lower scoring at this level, so if Oregon doesn’t garner a bunch of runs then the sky is not falling – but if they can’t score runs at all then the Ducks will likely be in trouble.

That said, there is no one team that has dominated over everyone else this season. I expect that to be the case in this year’s WCWS. What that means is every team has a legitimate shot to take it all, and we’re going to see some great softball. It also means that these Oregon Ducks have a decent shot to get to the championship and win it, but only if they continue to play their best softball of this season.

Oregon plays their first game tonight against UCLA. The winner will play the winner of Texas Tech/Ole Miss, while the loser plays the elimination round on Friday.

The Ducks have proved they can beat UCLA, having won their series against the Bruins in the regular season – they just have to prove they can do it again.