Oregon Ducks Football: Bluechip Rule Of Thirds Tracking

All of you that follow ATQ, and especially Hythloday’s film analysis, know about his “Rule Of Thirds”. This rule states that the performance and development of recruited players can be broken more or less equally into three groups: the top third of players that become major contributors to the team, the middle third that plays a supporting role and may have bursts of excellence but also may veer the other way, and the bottom third that underperforms – or doesn’t perform – and fades off the team. Further, through years of statistical reviews and charting, Hythloday has established that the ROT exists across the board and applies to all teams and all players, regardless of the ranking of the team or player. It really is a fascinating statistical fact.

The ROTs applies to all players regardless of their ranking when recruited. That got me thinking: Oregon football has been on a recruiting tear of late, so what does an examination of 4* and 5* Oregon recruits show us? Does the rule apply?

My exercise today is to see how the ROTs applies to Oregon football players that have been recruited, beginning with Willie Taggart’s 2017 class. We start there because, regardless of how you might feel about Slick Willie, Oregon recruiting took off with Taggart and has not regressed since. It seemed to be a reasonable starting point for me.

My list only includes players recruited from high school; no transfers or JUCO recruits. I have only listed recruits that actually made it on the team roster. Also, the quarterback position – especially where Oregon is concerned – gets a bit of an asterisk. The Ducks have used primarily transfers as starters since Vernon Adams, so it’s difficult to say if the QBs behind the transfer starter have actually washed out. Be that as it may, that is a different conversation and they are included here, regardless.

The players that I identify as being in the bottom ¹⁄₃ in our Rule Of Thirds are listed below, in bold, with an explanation.

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2017

Thomas Graham, Jr CB

Deommodore Lenoir CB

Jaylon Redd ATH

Isaac Slade-Matautia OLB

Alex Forsyth OG

C.J. Verdell RB

Taggart’s sole recruiting class is remarkable. His six high-ranked recruits all worked out and had solid contributions to Ducks teams for years to come. It really is a unicorn. We are not likely to see something like this ever again.

Photo by Samuel Stringer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

2018

Adrian Jackson ILB

Steve Stephens S

Dawson Jaramillo OT

Penei Sewell OG

Jevon Holland S

Spencer Webb TE

Tyler Shough QB

Steven Jones OG

Isaah Crocker WR

You will recognize all of the names that are not in bold type as having been important contributors to the Duck teams they played on. But what about the others?

Adrian Jackson – As a freshman, played in 12 games. 13 tackles. He injured his right foot and was sidelined for 2019, then injured his left foot after four games in 2020. He played in 11 games in 2021 with 16 tackles. His stats placed him at the 21st position on the defense. Transferred to Nevada, but is never on a roster and falls off the radar.

Dawson Jaramillo – Freshman redshirt 2018. Played three snaps at center in 2019. Did not play in 2020. Participated in 11 games in 2021, and 12 games in 2022. Transferred to NC State and played four games in 2024. Jaramillo is a curious case – based on his college body of work, I put him in the lower third; however, he had a good 2021 season, so I want to be fair and not discount that.

Tyler Shough – As will be typical of QBs on this list, Shough had no meaningful playing time and transferred to Texas Tech, and then Louisville. He is currently with the New Orleans Saints.

Isaah Crocker – Crocker was on the roster from 2018-2022. His only stats were from playing five games in 2021, with seven receptions for 107 yards. He transferred to Nevada and played in 2023, where he caught four passes for 106 yards and one touchdown.

I would put all four of these players in the lower ⅓, with Jaramillo being on the line; still, he was a 4* recruit that didn’t appear to pan out like one.

2019

Kayvon Thibodeaux DE

Mykael Wright CB

Mase Funa OLB

Lance Wilhoite WR

Jonah Tauanu’u OT

Ge’Mon Eaford OLB

Mycah Pittman WR

Sean Dollars RB

Trikweze Bridges S

Keyon Ware-Hudson DT

Jaron Waters WR

Patrick Herbert TE

Treven Ma’ae DE

Lance Wilhoite – RS in 2019, was not in any games in ‘20. Wilhoite then falls off the radar.

Jonah Tauanu’u – Played in two games and RS in 2019. Medically retired after 2020.

Ge’Mon Eaford – Played in 10 games in 2019, primarily on kickoff coverage and returns. He totaled 28 snaps played on defense and made one tackle. He’s not on the 2020 roster and doesn’t land anywhere meaningful. I find him on the 2023 UTM (University of Tennessee at Martin) roster, and I don’t consider that meaningful.

Sean Dollars – I don’t need to get into Dollars. He was a washout for his three seasons before going to Nevada. Even there, he did not live up to his ranking.

Jaron Waters – RS in 2019, participated in one game in 2020. Went to So. Utah and then in 2022 went to Grambling. In three seasons at Grambling, played 32 games, 23 REC for 362 YDS and 4 TD. Quite underwhelming.

The 2019 class had some great hits, and as we can see, it also had misses – including some that we’ve completely forgotten about.

2020

Dontae Manning CB

Noah Sewell ILB

Robby Ashford QB

Jay Butterfield QB

Justin Flowe ILB

Jayson Jones OT

Jaden Navarrette OLB

Jonathan Denis OG

Kris Hutson ATH

Robby Ashford – Another forgettable QB. He never saw a game, and transferred to Auburn, South Carolina, and most recently transferred to Wake Forest for the upcoming season.

Jay Butterfield – in three seasons, he appeared in one game against E. Washington and completed a pass for one yard. He was never going to see action behind Nix, and transferred to San Jose State for his junior season. I don’t currently see him on a roster.

Justin Flowe – Five-star recruits can be a bust, and Flowe is Exhibit A. In his most productive year (2022), he played 10 games, with 35 tackles. In his three-year career at Oregon, he played in 12 games with 50 tackles. He then spent two seasons at Arizona. Last season he appeared in four games (on special teams) and recorded no stats. This season he has transferred to UNLV.

Jaden Navarrette – Played in one game in three seasons at Oregon. He transferred to UNLV as a WR.

Jonathan Denis – Did not play in a game in 2020. Played two seasons in Miami, then went to Central Missouri, and transferred this season to LA Tech.

The high rankers in this class were underwhelming, unless you were one of the players not in bold – Manning, Sewell, Jones, and Hutson.

2021

Avante Dickerson CB

Isaiah Brevard WR

Ty Thompson QB

Troy Franklin WR

Dont’e Thornton WR

Jonathan Flowe OLB

Bram Walden OT

Seven McGee RB

Jaylin Davies CB

Byron Cardwell RB

Daymon David S

Keith Brown ILB

Jonah Miller OT

Moliki Matavao TE

Keanu Williams DT

Terrance Ferguson TE

Isaiah Brevard – Played offense in ‘21, defense in ‘22. No meaningful stats. Last I saw, he was at Garden City Community College.

Ty Thompson – Thompson was not able to get any traction under Nix. He has since played for Tulane, and his numbers do not jump at you, suggesting that playing behind Nix was not Thompson’s issue.

Jonathan Flowe – RS in 2021. Appeared in the first two games of ‘22, then transferred at the end of the season. I did not find if Flowe was taken by another school.

Bram Walden – RS in ‘21. Appeared in two games in ‘22, and entered the portal. He transferred to ASU for 2023 and 2024.

Seven McGee – I won’t rehash Seven. He showed promise, but was a bust. Transferred to Jackson State in 2023, then UAlbany in 2024.

Jaylin Davies – Appeared in two games in 2021, with insignificant stats. Played 22-24 with UCLA. He is now with Oklahoma State and will play a final game in Autzen on Sep. 6th.

Daymon David – Played for three seasons for Oregon; 23 games, 13 tackles, 0 INTs, one PD. Quite underwhelming. He is now a safety with Akron.

Jonah Miller – Played no games in 2021. Transferred to UTSA.

Keanu Williams – In two seasons, he appeared in 10 games with 5 tackles.

2021 appears to be another either/or proposition. There were a few here where, even though they were highly ranked, I just didn’t remember them at all.

Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images

2022

Devon Jackson OLB

Jalil Tucker DB

Jahlil Florence CB

Dave Iuli OG

Jordan James RB

Kyler Kasper WR

Trejon Williams DB

Harrison Taggart OLB

Justius Lowe ATH

Emar’rion Winston OLB

Jalil Tucker – Tucker played in one game as a freshman and made one tackle. He then spent two seasons at the JUCO level at San Diego Mesa, and has been picked up this season by the Beavers.

Trejon Williams – RS in ‘22 and did not play. He completely falls off the map, and I do not see him on any rosters.

Harrison Taggart – Taggart appeared in three games, and then hit the transfer portal. He played at BYU for two seasons and is playing this season with Cal. He has most recently committed to the Cal Bears.

Busts all, at least at Oregon. Taggart’s game is better now; he started all of BYU’s games last season and has okay stats there; however, we’re tracking Oregon recruiting and Oregon performance. BYU doesn’t count here.

Photo by CFP/Getty Images

What we end up with is 63 four-and-five star recruits between 2017 and 2022. By my estimation, 26 of them are busts, meaning that 41% are bottom tier. But let’s say that there’s a few that are borderline or that we might quibble about, such as the four QBs or Jaramillo. Give the QBs their asterisk and put Jaramillo in the middle 1/3rd, and that would take us to 21 of 63. Whaddya know – 21 of 63 is a straight 33%. This is in spite of a stellar 2017 recruiting class.

This is what Hythloday sees in his statistical charting. The Rule Of Thirds is a constant over time; you can’t isolate a couple of seasons and say it doesn’t apply. It does apply, universally, and it applies to the Oregon Ducks, as I have demonstrated here.