Oregon Ducks Baseball: NCAA Regionals Preview

Like their softball counterparts, the Ducks made a quick exit from the Big Ten Tournament following a sluggish loss to Nebraska on Saturday morning. Whether they will be able to match the success the ladies have had in the playoffs remains to be seen. With a #12 overall seeding in the NCAA Playoffs the Oregon gets to continue the diamond action in Eugene for at least another weekend. Below, I break down each team participating in the Eugene Regional.

I’ll be referencing a few advanced stat measurements for each team (all courtesy of d1baseball.com), so I’ve included a primer and some links for each of these terms below.

Pyth: Pythagorean Winning Percentage – the expected record of a team computed directly from runs scores and runs allowed.

RPI : Rating Percentage Index – a power ranking based on a team’s record, the records of their opponents, and the records of their opponent’s opponents.

DSR: Diamond Sports Ranking – a complicated formula intended to compute a team’s probability of defeating an average team in any given game.

Utah Valley Wolverines

Record: 28-27 (13-11 Western Athletic)

Winning %: 0.509

Pyth: 0.595

RPI: 170th

DSR: 163rd

The Wolverines will be Oregon’s first opponent this Friday at 6PM and enter the playoffs having won four straight games to take the WAC Tournament. UVU is a classic smaller school team who put together a run late in the season to punch their ticket to the playoffs. They are ranked far lower in both RPI and DSR than the other three teams in this regional pool. Indeed, their DSR of 0.428 means the model thinks they are overall a below average Div-1 team. They still rate more highly than the University of Portland, and Oregon lost several mid-week games to the Pilots earlier this season.

Arizona Wildcats

Record: 39-18 (18-12 Big 12)

Winning %: 0.684

Pyth: 0.594

RPI: 27th

DSR: 36th

Familiar visitors to PK Park in the “before times,” the Wildcats won three straight games to take the Big 12 Tournament and enter the post-season with strong momentum. The Big 12 is measured as a stronger baseball conference than the B1G by DSR, and Arizona has a winning record of 12-8 against RPI Quad-1 opponents. Most metrics have the Wildcats at the most likely team to pull an upset against their regional host.

Cal Poly Mustangs

Record: 41-17 (23-7 Big West)

Winning %: 0.707

Pyth: 0.647

RPI: 29th

DSR: 42nd

The stallions from San Luio Obispo were on the bubble for the playoffs, but came back from an early 15-3 shellacking by UC Irvine to defeat the Anteaters twice and take the Big West Tournament, confirming their spot. Despite coming from a much smaller conference, both RPI and DSR have them rated relatively close to Arizona. The biggest difference between these two first game opponents in overall strength of schedule. The Mustangs are well behind the Wildcats at 101st to 38th according to DSR and 84th to 55th by RPI. Moreover, Cal Poly has only a 4-11 record against RPI Quad-1 opponents this year. If the Mustangs can pull off an upset and stay out of the elimination bracket early, they have the potential to make things interesting on Sunday.

Oregon Ducks

Record: 42-14 (22-8 Big Ten)

Winning %: 0.750

Pyth: 0.749

RPI: 16th

DSR: 17th

Ironically the hosts are the only team in this regional not to win their conference tournament. Many have pointed to the weather delay that moved the Ducks’ game against eventual Big Ten Tournament champion Nebraska to 7AM PDT as a key factor for last weekend’s disappointing performance. Despite this, Oregon is ranked well ahead of the rest of the field in the metrics. The biggest concern for the Ducks coming into the weekend is their bullpen. Oregon has shown they can beat elite teams, going 9-1 against RPI Quad-1 opponents. The Ducks have also shown they can struggle against even lower ranked teams if one of their three regular starters can’t hold up for at least five innings. It is important for Oregon to avoid any upsets early on that would force them to look at options deeper in the pitching rotation on Sunday or Monday.