Mapping Out the Rest of the Trail Blazers Season

The Portland Trail Blazers are heading into the final three weeks of their 2024-25 regular-season campaign. Carrying a 32-42 record, they’re in no-man’s land, south of Play-In position for the 2025 NBA Playoffs, north of premium Draft Lottery spots.

With eight games remaining on the schedule, we’re going to take a look at Portland’s prospects. What are the possibilities and what needs to happen to maximize their gains in the coming weeks?

Can the Blazers Make the Play-In?

In order to reach the postseason Play-In Tournament, the Blazers would need to get to 10th place, at least, in the Western Conference.

For those worried, there’s no lottery penalty to making the tournament beyond what comes organically from winning extra games. In other words, if the Blazers made the tournament and lost there, they’d still be in the lottery drawing. Only teams that actually make the playoffs bracket (top eight seeds in each conference by record or winning Play-In games) are out of the lottery.

Currently Portland stands in the 12th position in the conference with 42 losses.

The 11th and 10th positions belong to the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks, respectively. Each of those franchises stands at 38 losses. But each owns a playoffs-seeding tiebreaker over the Blazers. That means the Blazers would need at least one fewer loss than the Mavericks and Suns to get into the Play-In, as ties go to the other team.

At minimum, both Phoenix and Dallas would need to lose 5 of their remaining games in order for Portland to catch them. If Phoenix and Dallas only lose 5 apiece—accumulating 43 losses each—Portland would need to go 8-0 and remain at 42 losses to pass them. Every time the Blazers lose from here on in, both Phoenix and Dallas would need an extra loss as well.

While mathematically possible, the odds of the Suns and Mavericks both going on huge losing streaks while Portland remains near-perfect are pretty slim. It’s safe to say that, barring a miracle, the Blazers are not going to reach the 10th seed in the West and will not participate in this year’s Play-In tournament. Never say never, but you can at least say neve…

Where Can the Blazers Reach in the Lottery?

Portland’s 32-42 record leaves them as the 9th-worst team in the NBA so far this season.

Technically speaking the Blazers could still rise as high as the 5th-worst record with some incredible luck. They could also drop all the way out of the lottery, as mentioned above. Those eventualities are nearly impossible.

Practically speaking, the Blazers are now operating in a band with three other teams between the 8th and 11th spots. Here’s the current order:

8th—San Antonio Spurs (31-41)

9th—Portland Trail Blazers (32-42)

10th—Miami Heat (32-41)

11th—Chicago Bulls (33-40)

For reference, the 7th-place Toronto Raptors have 47 losses, the 12th-place Suns 38.

Portland’s remaining schedule looks like this:

• @Knicks, @Hawks, @Raptors, @Bulls
• Spurs, @Jazz, Warriors, Lakers

Charitably, four of those games are pretty lose-able, four fairly winnable.

It looks as if the Blazers will stay in this area. The final result depends on what the other teams do just as much as Portland’s performance.

Clearly the games against Chicago and San Antonio stand out, as both those teams are in this band. Circle those nights (April 4th and 6th) on your calendar.

What’s the Difference in the Odds?

Thanks to Tankathon, we can easily see the odds for the four positions the Blazers are vying for. We’ll list the position, odds of a Top Four pick, and odds of the First Overall pick.

• 8th—26.3%, 6.0%
• 9th—20.3%, 4.5%
• 10th—13.9%, 3.0%
• 11th—9.4%, 2.0%

As you can see, the difference between 8th and 11th is significant. The 11th spot holds odds roughly 33% as good as the 8th in Top Four probability and First Overall. The drop in Top Four is particularly galling, at least in spitball terms. 6% and 2% can be considered longshots either way. The difference between 26.3% and 9.4% is a lot.

How Deep is the Draft?

Obviously the Blazers want to select as soon as possible. The 2025 Draft is considered deep through much of the first round, so getting a mid-lottery pick wouldn’t be awful, but higher is better.

As the draft class and Portland’s current roster have evolved in tandem this year, I’ve begun to ask a simple question to evaluate this draft:

Which players, if drafted, would cause the Blazers to reevaluate their current plans almost immediately? Where’s the line between, “This is a nice addition,” and, “This changes things and opens up more possibilities”?

Experts might argue, but given Portland’s situation, I will claim that the line is drawn clearly between the third and fourth picks.

Above that line lie:

• Cooper Flagg, a 6’9, All-Defensive power forward with scoring ability, a potential generational star who, with Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara, would give Portland an indomitable wing/forward corps
• Dylan Harper, a 6’5 combo guard who could bring size, length, and elite offense to the point guard position, matching it up to the physical standards of the current wings and guards on the roster
• Ace Bailey, a 6’10 small forward with the potential to be a dominant offensive matchup nightmare for opponents over the next decade

Good players will be taken below the first three, but those candidates don’t have the established quality and/or defined position to displace Portland’s incumbents automatically. They wouldn’t necessarily wedge themselves into the starting lineup or free a more experienced player for trade. They might help, but they won’t cause the Blazers to reevaluate their whole future.

In short, Portland will be happy wherever they land, but the real money comes in the top three selections.

Where to Now?

Given all this, the plan for the remainder of the season is clear. If you’re a Blazers fan who’s been resisting the tank all year, it’s time to hop on board the armored division.

Personally, I’m still looking for one or two overwhelming offensive performances from Shaedon Sharpe to get him all the way off the launching pad, plus continued experience in big minutes against prime lineups for Donovan Clingan. Those are the only two things, besides deep-bench auditions, left to see in the Blazers’ season. They’re optional and they can happen in losses as well as wins.

Other than that, the Blazers have nothing realistic to play for, nothing to prove that they haven’t shown already a half-dozen times over.

The only thing that really matters anymore is accumulating those losses. Every position the Blazers slide down the standings is a 5-6% better chance of getting one of those precious top-four picks. As long as it’s not #4, it’ll be party time in Portland.

That’s why we’re officially announcing (a week late, but we wanted to have some respect for the hard-fought achievements of the season) that it’s time for the tank to roll out of the garage and onto the court. It’s always a good day to root for winning basketball, but if you’re rooting for actual victories, both you and the Blazers are playing a fool’s game.

Go Blazers! But not too hard, ok?