How Does a Floor-Spreading Kris Murray Impact the Trail Blazers?

The Portland Trail Blazers have done a decent job building out their depth over the past three seasons. While lacking a real star, the franchise does boast talented players across the roster with versatility at each position.

Former first round pick Kris Murray is anticipated to start the season playing few, if any, minutes with the wing and forward positions already manned by players with a better claim to court time. Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Shaedon Sharpe, Jerami Grant and Matisse Thybulle are all expected to get burn before Murray.

But the third-year Blazer, who turns 25 later this month, did show positive signs last season. Though the progress didn’t necessarily reflect on the stat sheet, Murray showed he could move without the ball, finish around the rim and guard multiple positions.

He averaged 4.2 points on 41.9 percent from the field and 22.5 percent from three, to go with 2.6 boards, 1.0 assist and 0.5 steals in 15.1 minutes. Among forwards, he ranked ninth in offensive rebounding, pulling down 7.3 percent of Portland misses.

The Blazers were +1.1 when he was on the court. Specifically, they were +3.3 in offensive rebounds, with the opponent worse off by 4.4 points and effective field goal percentage down 4.0 percent.

Unfortunately, Murray’s lack of consistency shooting from beyond the three-point line currently hampers his prospects to play.

Murray’s Game

Taken with the 23rd pick in 2023, Murray entered the league with a heck of lot less fanfare than twin brother Keegan, who had been selected fourth by the Sacramento Kings 12 months earlier. Murray was one of four Blazers taken on draft night in 2023 with he and Scoot Henderson selected in the first round. Rayan Rupert and Toumani Camara — who arrived in the Damian Lillard trade — were second-rounders.

Coming out of the University of Iowa, the 6’8 Murray was pegged in a similar light to Keegan but without the high-level scoring. He boasted mobility and length with some athleticism, relying on opportunistic plays to contribute on offense.

Murray’s basketball IQ is sound. He’s rarely out of position and often able to anticipate plays before they happen. Over the past 12 months, he’s also shown an ability and eagerness to guard well, particularly against positions two through four.

I don’t think I’m embellishing by suggesting that he’s fine on the defensive side of the 3 and D moniker. On offense, he moves without the ball, rebounds, finishes around the rim and is generally contributory to helping his teammates scoring.

Three-point shooting

Despite reports about his consistency hitting threes at the Blazers’ Tualatin practice facility, the skill is yet to translate consistently to an NBA court. As mentioned, last season he hit 22.5 percent from three on 1.7 attempts last season, ranking a ghastly 101st among forwards. Murray was a little better from the corner, hitting 25.9 percent, bumping him up to 100th among forwards, but still objectively bad.

Unfortunately for Murray, in the modern NBA, wings and forwards without any facilitation ability, need to be able to hit the three at least 35 percent of the time. A rate his twin Keegan typically shoots.

Anything lower than this and the opposition pays little-to-no attention, leading to the clogging of the paint, hindering opportunities for drivers getting downhill. As such, if he doesn’t boost his three-point shooting over the next 24 months, I’m not sure how lucrative his second contract will be.

But given his ability to hit shots at the practice facility, one can only assume his biggest barrier is above the shoulders and between the ears. The key to his potential three-point metamorphosis may be as simple as increased reps in game situations.

What happens if Murray starts converting?

Kris Murray hitting 35 percent from three on decent volume (three-to-four attempts a game), presents the Blazers with an interesting dilemma. Combined with his defensive engagement and general smarts, the development of a reliable long-range shot will demand rotation minutes for the still-young wing.

While not quite the defender as Matisse Thybulle, Murray being an outside threat could make the Australian national representative expendable. Thybulle enters this season with the Blazers after picking up a player option. The 28-year-old will hit unrestricted free agency next summer unless the Blazers extend or trade him earlier.

Murray is entering the third year of a rookie-scale deal with the Blazers able to extend him next summer. They could also let him get to restricted free agency in 2027 when they’ll have the right to match an offer sheet he signs.

In this hypothetical world, Murray earns real minutes, serving as a key piece off the Blazers bench at the two, three or four.

Conclusion

If Murray continues to shoot poorly from beyond the arc he may stick in the NBA but it’ll be in a deep rotation, end-of-bench capacity. If he starts shooting like his twin brother then the Blazers might need to consider extension talks next summer.

All non-long-range shooting aspects of the 24-year-old’s game are fine. He defends across multiple positions, moves without the ball on offense, rebounds and can attack the rim when required. He doesn’t handle the ball or facilitate and that’s fine with this Blazers roster relatively endowed with guys who can create and, at the very least, bring the ball up the floor.

Effective two-way wings and forwards are essential to the success of an NBA team, particularly during the NBA Playoffs. The key to be an effective wing in the modern game is being able to shoot the ball from outside at a rate higher than what Murray is hitting.

The fact that he’s able to hit the three at a regular clip at the practice facility suggests there’s nothing wrong with his action. Let’s just hope Murray can work out his game-time yips soon before the Blazers have to make a call on him.