The Calendar has turned to August meaning Oregon football will be returning this month and more specifically will be returning in 23 days when they kickoff the season against Montana State. What I have done today is, using Bill Connelly’s SP+, I’ve ranked every game on Oregon’s schedule from easiest to most difficult.

For those unfamiliar SP+ is a predictive college football team rating system that uses returning production, recruiting ratings and historical staff development/deployment history to boil down each team in college football into one number that represents the number of points they would be predicted to beat or lose to the average FBS team by. To find a hypothetical line between 2 teams all you need to do is to subtract one SP+ rating from the other +/- 2.5 to 3.5 points for home field advantage effects. Pre-season SP+ is one factor of many that sportsbooks use to set pre-season over/under win totals at and I view it as the most public accessible data into seeing how sportsbooks view teams. In the pre-season Oregon has an SP+ rating of 24.7 making them the 7^th highest ranked team in SP+. But what about Oregon’s opponents? Without further ado here is Oregon’s schedule from easiest to most difficult

Week 1 Montana State -11.9* Rating

Ok to lead off I needed to do some monkey math here since Bill Connelly does rank every single team from D1 to D3 during the season, in the pre-season SP+ ratings are only published for FBS teams. Montana State played 1 FBS team last season, New Mexico in Albuquerque and won 35-31. From that we can infer that Montana St. is approximately 6.5 points better than New Mexico. Using that result from almost a full year ago is a stretch at best but sadly it’s the best I can do and my estimated rating for Montana St. would be -11.9

(-18.4 New Meixco’s rating + 4 points better +2.5 points from home field effects).

Using SP+ the line for the Oregon Montana State game should be around 40.1 points. 24.7 (Oregon’s Rating) – (-11.9 Montana State estimated rating) +3.5 points for Autzen Stadium

Estimated Line Per SP+ Oregon -40

It’s worth repeating again this is some very loosey goosey math but also if it were me personally I would be inclined to take the Bobcats to cover this hypothetical line. Like Oregon last year Montana State went undefeated in the regular season before losing a heartbreaker in the FCS championship to North Dakota State. The Bobcats return a ton of talent, are a consensus Top 5 FCS team in the preseason and beat the Idaho team that gave Duck fans heart palpitations by a combined 64 points in two games against the Vandals last season.

Week 4 Oregon State -2.4 Rating

The Beavers have fallen on tough times after being left behind out of the college football power conferences. A mass exodus through the portal and uncertainty about the programs future hurting recruiting these past 3 cycles has put the Beavers with the likes of Toledo and Louisiana Lafayette in college football rating systems making their September trip to Autzen Stadium in late September the Ducks second easiest game on the schedule per SP+

Estimated Line Per SP+ Oregon -30.5

Things may be turning around for Oregon State as they are now entrenched in a conference with at least 8 football members and have some stability. They bring in Malik Murphy from Duke and Texas who has showed promise against power level teams over the past two seasons. The now non-conference series between the Ducks and the Beavers is in question at the moment as this game is the last game scheduled between the two teams. Me personally as sad as it would be, I wouldn’t be opposed to the series taking a hiatus for a few years. If Oregon is going to win comfortably by 28-35 points every single year that benefits no one. It hurts Oregon’s non-conference resume, and I’m sure Beavers fans and the football program don’t love the idea of getting their buck-teeth kicked in every single year by a team competing for a national title.

If Oregon State can take a couple of years to get settled in the new PAC-X and rise up to a program the caliber of Boise State then 100% bring it back on.

Week 3 AT Northwestern -6.1 Rating

The first road game to pop up on the list, although road maybe should be in air quotes, as Oregon has the distinct pleasure of playing in potentially the funniest college football stadium ever created. As Northwestern is ½ way through the two-year process to renovate Ryan Field they are splitting home games between their lake side lacrosse/intramural stadium and Wrigley field. As the Ducks travel to Northwestern in early September while the Cubs are still hogging up Wrigley field for their playoff push Oregon gets to play a football game at the beach.

Estimated Line Per SP+ Oregon -28.5

I don’t know about you but when I hear Oregon is playing a football game against an academically strong school in front of less than 2,000 people, I immediately think Stanford. Does Northwestern have similar Farm Voodoo as the Cardinal in the Big Ten? We shall see this September.

Week 2 Oklahoma State 0.9 Rating

Closing out Oregon’s non-conference slate is the home game against Oklahoma State. I think when this home and home was scheduled all the way back in the fall of 2018 the Ducks were not expecting the Cowboys to be their 4^th easiest game on the schedule but so much has happened since then that here we are.

Estimated Line Per SP+ Oregon -27.5

Mike Gundy is attempting to come back from the dead once again. Oklahoma State was a disaster last year but in his 20 seasons as head coach of the Pokes he has improved their win total from the previous year by 3 wins or more 4 different times which is what he will need to do this year to get the Cowboys back to a bowl game. Personally I think it might be the end of the road for Gundy, but September 6^th is his and his programs opportunity to prove me wrong.

Week 12 Minnesota 6.0 Rating

Oregon’s first game outside of the month of September cracks the list as the 5^th easiest/7^th most difficult game per SP+ although some scheduling quirks may make this game more difficult. This game was moved to late Friday night earlier this off-season which means Oregon has a short week to prepare for the Gophers after facing Iowa at Kinnick stadium the week before. Meanwhile, thanks to these supposed tough teams in this conference whining about long airplane flights, Minnesota is coming off a bye before heading out to the west coast for the Friday night clash.

Estimated Line Per SP+ Oregon -22.0

Situationally this game could be tough for Oregon despite the projected SP+ Line

Week 9 Wisconsin 7.2 Rating

Conversely when Oregon plays Minnesota’s biggest rival the Badgers will be coming off a stretch of AT Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State before heading to Oregon. The Badgers season from start to finish is seen by many as the most difficult schedule in the Big Ten and could potentially be the most difficult schedule in all of college football this season.

Estimated Line Per SP+ Oregon -21.0

We all know how this game went last year. Despite some mistakes he has made at Wisconsin I still believe Luke Fickell to be a good coach. Wisconsin might be the perfect example of a team that is better than their record this season. The Badgers easily could be below .500 when they come to Eugene this year but they should not be a team taken lightly.

We have just passed the mid-point of Oregon’s slate of games and nothing says middling quite like the Trojans of USC. In all seriousness the game against USC this year is tough to project because of so many questions with the Trojans. USC’s first season in the B1G was a cursed season as Hythloday enraptured in his off-season roster preview of the Trojans. My question that I’m genuinely asking is, was USC a good team that was just flat out unlucky last year? Or were the gaffes in those one score losses due to something inherent in Lincoln Reilly’s program? I think we will get the answer to that this season. If USC was truly just unlucky last year then I could see the Trojans being 9-1 coming into the game against Oregon late in the season and this becomes a huge game in the B1G title race and College Football playoff race. However, if the issues that have plagued them are systemic and they keep haunting the Trojans USC could also be 5-5 at this point in the season and Lincoln Reilly’s days could be numbered.

Estimated Line Per SP+ Oregon -17

SP+ has a middle of the road projection for USC placing them at 30^th in the country, and 8^th in the B1G. Not a bad team by any means, but also not a playoff contender.

Week 8 AT Rutgers 4.7 Rating

Despite Rutgers having a lower rating then the 3 teams previous on this list, this is where we start to see the effects of home field advantage. Autzen is a shrine that gives Oregon 3 to 3.5 points for every home game and is a huge, quantified advantage for the Ducks. Removing the advantage of Autzen stadium and then adding into the fact that this will be Oregon’s longest ever trip for a conference game and that is how the game at Rutgers becomes the 5^th most difficult game on the schedule for the Ducks this year.

Estimated Line Per SP+ Oregon -16.5

Week 7 Indiana 12.2 Rating

Per SP+ Indiana is the best team that Oregon hosts at Autzen stadium this year. After becoming the Cinderella story of college football last season, national pundits, and fans across the country are curious to see if they can do it again against a tougher B1G schedule than what they faced last season.

Estimated Line Per SP+ Oregon -16.0

Personally I’m bullish that Indiana’s offence will prove that it was no fluke last year as I think Fernando Mendoza will absolutely flourish in Indiana’s system against the Big Ten, but I have questions about the Defense. Either way it should be an exciting October game against a good B1G team.

Week 14 AT Washington 6.4 Rating

Even though it’s early August it’s never too early to start preparing for hate week against the Huskies. Moving this game from mid-season to the last week of the season creates an interesting dynamic for the Cascade clash as the questions surrounding both Oregon and Washington will be answered by the time they will be preparing for each other Thanksgiving weekend.

Estimated Line Per SP+ Oregon -15.0

In a conference this year where a lot of teams are turning the keys of the offence over to a talented but mostly unproven young QB Washington has one of the most tantalizing with Demond Williams. In last year’s game Williams impressed me with how slippery and quick he was despite being sacked 10 times. If the Huskies can field just a passable O-line to protect Williams I think I will grow to absolutely despise Williams. The question is, can Jedd Fisch build that O-Line to protect Williams in year 2?

Husky stadium, Kinnick stadium, and the game that will be talked about next, are quite the gauntlet of road environments that the Ducks will enter into this season. For those unfamiliar Kinnick stadium in Iowa is like Autzen in that it may not be the biggest stadium but fan per fan is as loud and as intimidating as any in college football especially when Iowa is fielding an elite defense like they so often do.

Estimated Line Per SP+ Oregon -10.0

Personally, I’m excited for the opportunity that this road game at Iowa presents for Oregon as Iowa is the ultimate litmus test of the B1G. If you are a typical B1G team Iowa will beat you because Iowa is the king of typical Big Ten Teams. However, the truly elite teams beat Iowa and recently, they beat Iowa comfortably. A double-digit win at Iowa sends yet another message that Oregon belongs at the very top of the Big Ten.

To no one’s surprise this is the toughest game for the Ducks this year per SP+. It’s easy to understand why, Penn State might have the best roster in the B1G this year and they are finally getting a marquee opponent for their infamous white-out.

Estimated Line Per SP+ Oregon +6.5

This also represents the only game on Oregon’s regular season schedule where the Ducks are seen as pre-season underdogs and I wouldn’t have it any other way. Similar to the game against Iowa this game is a huge opportunity for Oregon. Win it and you have just won in the toughest road environment outside of Eugene. An environment where only the elite teams are capable of walking into and pulling off a win.

That’s Oregon’s schedule from easiest to most difficult. What do you think? Are any games out of place? What record do you have the Ducks going this season?

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