Due to the slow start by Oregon’s offense, the game was still somewhat in doubt until the Ducks went up 21-0 at the start of the 4th quarter. Nothing Wisconsin’s own offense had done during the game (or in this season up until now) indicated they could possibly overcome a three score deficit with less than 15 minutes of game time left. Oregon stole a possession with an onside kick to begin the game and effectively managed the clock at the end of the first half that put the Badger’s last drive of the second quarter into garbage time. This means Wisconsin only had 5 meaningful possessions while the Ducks had 8.

On defense, there was little to criticize but that has as much to do with the Badgers catastrophic injury situation on that side of the ball as anything. After having seen the game live and reviewing the film afterward, I think that Oregon’s inability to sustain drives was as much about execution early on as it was any errors in the play calling. I saw quite a bit of new wrinkles in play design in this game, most noticeably more emphasis on interior screen passes where offensive linemen release downfield. The results were somewhat mixed, but there were several that I would hope to see again after the bye week.

Play Type

Plays

Success Rate

Explosive Rate

Adj. YPP

Rush 30 53.33% 23.33% 6.57

Pass 22 45.45% 27.27% 7.33

Total 52 50.00% 25.00% 6.85

In their first four offensive possessions the Ducks ran 15 offensive plays with 33.33% success rate, 1 explosive pass, an average of 1.4 yards per play, and no points. Each drive included a failed screen pass, but none of them were of the perimeter variety I have been so critical of. Two were out of unusual formations (a swinging gate and OT #35 Genorris Wilson split wide), but one of these had a chance to succeed (Wilson missed his block when split out but on re-watch the offense had the look they wanted). The other two were well designed, but one pass was dropped and the other was successfully defended (this last is shown in the clips below). As he had last week at Rutgers, OC Will Stein tried to put an entire drive of gadget plays together on the third possession, but Wisconsin’s stronger defense had already seen the Rutgers film and Oregon promptly went three and out.

On their fifth drive Oregon controlled the clock going 99 yards for a touchdown. The key differences were moving away from any gadget plays, getting RB #0 Davison involved, and most importantly converting third downs with an explosive pass and then an explosive screen to retain possession. The last four meaningful possessions for Oregon were all full field drives (40+ yards) despite driving rain and having to insert their backup quarterback. There are lessons that should be learned from the slow start and avoided in the future, but with this context I am less concerned by the overall offensive numbers in this game than I was having only seen the game live.

The run blocking grades for the offensive line saw a marked improvement over the start of the season with a collective 14.67% error rate. There were a few new wrinkles showcased in this game I hadn’t noticed so far this season. Below is a representative sample of successful rushing plays.

(Reminder – You can use the controls in the bottom right of the embedded player to alter the playback speed and/or enter full screen mode.)

:00 – QB #5 Dante Moore has been used in the run game all season, but I hadn’t seen any true backside reads in quite a while. On the first play of the game the field side defensive end stays wide so he hands off to RB #6 Whittington (there also seems to be an RPO tag). There is penetration allowed by RG #74 Iuli and TE #18 Sadiq double teams the nose tackle for some reason. He should be taking the safety who is firing down in run support. Whittington has to spin out of contact for five yards.
:09 – Wisconsin is playing conservatively on second and short with a light box so there is no call for Moore to read a defender. The blocking is the same as the last clip, but better executed. The Badgers get caught blitzing which helps Oregon’s blockers get better angles on the linebackers. The back, RB #0 Davison now, shows off his strength and balance by keeping his legs churning through the tackle.
:24 – Davison was easily the best runner for Oregon on a per carry basis on Saturday. In addition to having the strength to break tackles, he posesses remarkable short area agility. Combined with vision well in advance of what one would expect of a true freshman, he is the best runner Oregon has if the blocking isn’t being executed as it was drawn up. Backed up after a penalty the Ducks try to run off right tackle #71 Harkey, but TE #9 Ja. Johnson is beaten immediately and LG #75 Pregnon has given up backside penetration. Davison waits until the last possible moment before cutting back to his left behind #72 Laloulu where over pursuit from the safety has left an open lane. Just like that, a failed run becomes an explosive gain.
:43 – Another outside zone run to the offense’s right. This time QB #12 Thomas occupies the backside defender with a read. Unlike the previous clip the blocking is textbook. Davison is left one-on-one with the linebacker and his quick feet turn a first down into a touchdown. If he ever needs a spare credit on his transcript, I would recommend ballroom or salsa.

The line has been improving at its bread and butter zone concepts, but some of the wrinkles that build off of that are still works in progress. This was also not a great blocking day for the tight ends, with #18 Sadiq having a particularly rough outing. Here are examples of failed rushing plays.

:00 – When Sadiq goes in motion toward the offense’s right the linebackers have to adjust. This gives Oregon the numbers they want on the boundary side to try and convert 3rd and medium using pin-and-pull blocks to get to the edge. Ja. Johnson seals the boundary DE, but immediate penetration by WIS #68 Barton against Pregnon interferes with Laloulu pulling around. This leaves the linebacker free to pursue Whittington who has to bounce to the sideline where the corner has kept contain against LT #76 World.
:11 – The overall error rate was down this game, but it only takes one bad block to wreck a play. With the boundary corner occupied by WR #11 McClellan coming across the formation there is an open lane for Whittington straight up the middle. Immediate penetration allowed by Sadiq instead results in a TFL.
:24 – Another pin-and-pull design into the boundary, with a QB read and motion from RB #23 Hill occupying the backside defenders. The play side is a mess though. The same DE as before, WIS #17 Peterson, dodges the block of Pregnon. In the meantime Ja. Johnson whiffs on the linebacker, World doesn’t keep his helmet play side, and Laloulu should be called for holding. The pile up results in a loss of yardage.
:32 – It appears the plan is for Whittington to run off left tackle. A quick inside move from the nose tackle means he never has a chance to get going.

It took a while before he looked comfortable in this game but QB Dante Moore was beginning to find his groove before leaving in the 3rd quarter with a bloody nose. In relief came QB #12 Brock Thomas. Given he was coming in cold, a close score, and appalling weather in the middle of the game he did an excellent job (though one of his completions should have been intercepted). Here is a sample of successful passing plays.

:00 – Moore is facing a tough situation on third and long. There is pressure coming from his right, but he calmly steps up in the pocket and keeps his eyes downfield. Wisconsin has three defenders deep in zone coverage (they used some variant of Cover-3 most of the game). This leaves a gap between the deep and underneath defenders. Moore finds McClellan on the in route with perfect timing to exploit this space.
:16 – The offense is backed up near their own goal line and needs to convert on third down to at least deny Wisconsin field position. Again, the Badgers are playing a three deep zone. After WR #2 Bryant comes in motion, the short routes from Sadiq and Davison mean there is nobody underneath to guard against McClellan running an out. He keeps his feet in bounds to save what would become a touchdown drive.
:30 – OC Will Stein seems to have anticipated this simulated pressure with the nickel blitzing from the field side was likely and called one of the new interior screens to exploit it. The DE dropping into coverage allows Pregnon to draw a bead on him while Iuli and Laloulu take out the linebackers to free Ja. Johnson downfield.
:56 – Thomas shows remarkable situational awareness on this play given this is his first collegiate action outside of garbage time. Wisconsin’s athletic true freshman #8 Posa jumps offsides then forgets the play is still live. Thomas, by contrast, knows he has a free play and does well to corral a high snap (an issue throughout the night, possibly due to wet balls). Once Thomas sees the corners bailing deep he knows WR #1 Dak. Moore will be wide open running a comeback route to his left and throws on time for a big gain.

There were early failures in pass protection that helped kill off the first four drives and, frankly, I think it rattled Moore a bit and he took a while to get comfortable. Overall pass blocking was very good though, with a net 9.41% error rate from the line on drop backs. Aside from the “gadgets” I liked the new interior screens but execution could use some work. With hindsight it might have also been better to wait until later in drives to break them out. Below are examples of failed passing plays.

:00 – This was the first of the new screen plays. Sadiq widens to the offense’s left as play action to the offense’s right freezes the linebackers. Laloulu and World release downfield and look to have good leverage on their blocking assignments. Sadiq needs to trust the play design and look the ball in to secure the catch as he shuffles downfield. When he turns his head to look for defenders he drops the ball.
:07 – Wisconsin playing three deep zone with four defenders short is designed to counter concepts just like this: the defenders are in good position against all three routes being run to the field and Ja. Johnson will take time to work free of press coverage. Just like against Indiana, this buys time for the pass rush to get home. The coverage didn’t even need to hold up on this play since World is late out of his stance and the DE comes almost unabated from Moore’s blind side. Even grabbing the defender’s face mask doesn’t prevent a sack. The quarterback did well to hang on to the ball.
:31 – Due to (yet another) unfortunate string of injuries the Badgers were forced to use true freshman WIS #8 Posa as a starting linebacker, rather than just as a pass rush specialist. Based on his performance in this game, he probably should have been part of the regular rotation sooner. He shows remarkable athleticism and situational awareness to get his hands up and deflect the pass. If he hadn’t, Whittington had blockers in front of him and would have turned this inside screen into a big play.
:50 – Thomas shows his inexperience here. By now Stein knows he needs to run Cover-3 beaters. Dak gets inside position running a post when the field receivers run off the defenders to that side with vertical routes, and Whittington puts the corner in conflict running into the flat. If Thomas looks downfield as he’s rolling right he has a chance for a big play. He locks onto Whittington though, and seeing the linebacker in coverage he decides to run for it. Normally he could probably get at least five yards here, but given the injury situation I assume the coaching staff had him under strict instructions to slide.

ATQ’s preview noted the borderline catastrophic injury situation for Wisconsin on offense. At quarterback we saw what appears to the staff’s preference in WIS #15 Simmons (helpful for older Ducks fans who might have been confused by seeing WIS #18 Danny O’Neil not in green and yellow). At running back they were forced to use third string short yardage specialist WIS #25 Yacamelli along with WIS #10 Ituka who, until this game, had only a single carry during meaningful play all season. In keeping with the trend of Wisconsin’s 2025 season, Yacamelli was hurt in the middle of this game and didn’t play in the second half.

All of this resulted in only one full field drive before garbage time, few enough plays I couldn’t get good run-pass splits. The total metrics were 63.33% defensive success while surrendering only 10.00% explosive plays and a mere 3.90 yards per play. What success Wisconsin could find was on the ground, and Ituka in particular looked promising for a redshirt freshman. Curiously the Badgers never ran their wide receivers on sweeps, which was a significant part of their gameplan in previous games. The only possible explanation for why they abandoned this part of their offense was concerns with wet footballs, but it seems like a miscalculation.

With the caveat of small sample size, Oregon was underwater in efficiency rush defense and was giving up too many yards per carry. Explosive runs were uncommon, and without any support from the passing game the rush defense wasn’t so poor as to allow any sustained drives. Examples of successfully defended rushes follow.

:00 – Watch DT #52 Washington, lined up directly over the center on this play. He anticipates the silent snap count and follows the ball through the center’s legs. The play is going away from him, but DT #1 Alexander and DE #10 Uiagalelei stay in control of their blockers to close the rushing lane. Washington even uses a spin move to recover and help with the tackle.
:15 – Wisconsin is running out of their goal line package to try and get some breathing room in the shadow of their own goal post. The entire front gets low out of their stances and there is no push up the middle. The back has no chance to bounce outside with #44 Tuitoti screaming in from the back side. The runner, WIS #10 Ituka, does well to fall forward and barely avoid a safety.
:39 – The badgers have two tight ends lined up in-line on either side of the formation. Oregon has countered with OLB #9 Purchase lined up to the offense’s left and boundary safety #21 Flowers coming down into the box. Washington gets immediate penetration and earns a holding penalty. Even without that the play was successfully defended with LB #28 Boettcher filling in the gap Ituka is aiming for and LB #54 Mixon wrapping up the runner’s legs.
:59 – The tight end to the play side, WIS #85 Stec, forgets to release from his double team and leaves Mixon free. Pulling around as part of the split-flow design, WIS #86 Mason is knocked backward by Purchase. Ituka nearly escapes, but Mixon hangs on until help arrives.

Given the weather, the quarterback situation, and the Ducks’ success in coverage Wisconsin would have been better off essentially abandoning the pass. If they could play the game again in the same environment the Badgers might play QB O’Neil for his legs, utilize wide receiver sweeps, and only throw the ball a handful of times. Below is a sample of unsuccessfully defended rush plays.

:00 – Notice Boettcher in the middle of the field behind the other linebackers. He is playing the “strong safety” role in this two high look with 3-4 personnel on the field that is usually played by #31 Thieneman when the defense is in nickel. On this play Thieneman is in his more typical field safety position. The play design occupies all three defenders to the boundary as CB #4 Finney has to take the receiver lined up across from him, Mixon needs to pick up the receiver coming across the formation, and Tuioiti has to watch for a QB keep. The slight hesitation lets the full back get a piece of Tuioti and Flowers waits a beat too long to fire down in run support.
:07 – It doesn’t get more Wisconsin than this: inside power out of the I-formation. The key block comes against DT #99 Green who gets his shoulders turned perpendicular to the line of scrimmage. This allows the left tackle a free release up to Mixon so Ituka can build up momentum and knock Flowers backward for the first down.
:24 – Oregon is running a twist with their defensive tackles and it works against them in this case. Coming underneath Washington vacates the B-gap to the offense’s right that is the aiming point for the back. Alexander now has a long path to get around the right guard and he doesn’t make it while the right tackle has a free path to Boettcher.
:40 – The line does well to clog all the inside running lanes and force Ituka to improvise. Tuioti doesn’t keep his shoulders parallel to the line of scrimmage which opens up a gap between him and Boettcher who has to keep outside contain. Flowers is in a tough position in the middle of the field and can’t break away from the left tackle until the back is going by him.

Nothing went right for Wisconsin’s offense through the air on Saturday. Pressure got to Simmons, receivers struggled to separate, and throws were inaccurate. Some examples:

:00 – Oregon isn’t expecting Wisconsin to risk going deep on 3rd and 4, so all the pass defenders are within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. The telestrator is helpfully highlighting the inside receiver who is the target of this pass. Thieneman has man coverage on him and is giving up outside leverage, but the throw is a bit behind due to pressure from Alexander and is nearly intercepted.
:22 – Oregon disguises the coverage here and it baits the quarterback perfectly. The defensive alignment looks like the Ducks are playing Cover-1 so Flowers will be in the very middle of the field. At the snap nickel back #22 Canady bails deep and Thieneman rotates over the slot receiver in Cover-2. This allows Flowers to rotate toward the boundary, where Ellison thinks he has a one-on-one matchup against Finney playing press. Flowers has the speed to get over the top of the route and has a chance at an interception.
:45 – Down two scores in the third quarter Ellison gets greedy and risks an interception (something he showed a penchant for risking on film). On the bootleg he tries to throw off his backfoot into a narrow window on the sideline and Thieneman undercuts it. He’d be better off checking down to his tight end in the flat for a short gain on first down.
:55 – Purchase, lined up on the offense’s left, actually makes a mistake and lets his assignment in man coverage run by him at the snap. Fortunately Boettcher has been left as a “robber” in the middle of the field. He follows the quarterback’s eyes right the the tight end and gets a PBU.

Wisconsin had a solitary pass completion before the fourth quarter. Since the starters were still in I have included clips from their scoring drive below, but the last three plays are not part of the metrics displayed earlier.

:00 – All of the routes are covered as they develop, so it turns into a scramble drill as Ellison rolls to his right. Mixon is supposed to help against a QB scramble (though Boettcher has tracked the play so quickly he could probably handle that himself), meaning Flowers needs to pick up WIS #8 Anthony in the flat. He stays at depth for some reason instead and Ellison has enough space to get away with throwing back across his body.
:20 – We’re all the way into the fourth quarter before the Badgers complete another pass. The motion from WIS #2 Kekahuna puts Tuioti in conflict and he has trouble redirecting on what is now very wet turf. Veteran CB #5 Th. Johnson diagnoses the play in time but also slips so Kekahuna has a free path to the sideline.
:28 – On fourth down the Badgers have nothing to lose. Oregon shows a max pressure but the linebackers back out. That leaves a narrow window on this short hitch and the ball is low, but Kekahhuna makes a great catch. Wisconsin went hurry up after this so the replay cuts off abruptly.
:38 – DC Tosh Lupoi and his players were no doubt eager to inflict a third straight shut out on Wisconsin. The Badgers scored for the first time in over 15 quarters, but it came down to a low chance gamble that paid off. The linebacker and corner rush from the boundary to overload the protection but there are no hot routes on third and long. Ellison has to throw up a prayer before CB #14 Offord takes him down and the pass is under thrown. This ends up benefiting the offense, since the receiver can look back to the ball the whole way and has time to adjust to the trajectory. Thieneman is in perfect position but can’t halt his momentum to come back to the ball and Flowers isn’t in position to help because of the blitz. Wisconsin got into the end zone two plays later.

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