Does the Trail Blazers’ Next Star Play for the Team Already?

The Portland Trail Blazers have a long to-do list in the Summer of 2025. They’ll engage in the 2025 NBA Draft, decide whether to re-sign a couple of contractually-variable players, and sniff around for opportune trades once the market opens up at the conclusion of the NBA Finals.

Throughout that process, one question will hover over them: Can they find the next star to lead the franchise into a new era of success? Without an affirmative answer, the rest of their moves will remain incremental, at best.

That question is also on the mind of one of our readers via this submission to the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.

Dave,

You keep talking about getting a star player. Is there any chance we already have one? Who do you think has the best chance to become that star among the young players on the team already? What if we have the right player under our nose already and just don’t know it yet?

Emma

It’s a fair question. The Blazers haven’t been drafting and trading the last few years for nothing. Their burdens would be eased a hundredfold if their new #1 option grew organically from their current ranks.

In order to answer the question, we’ll divide the roster into three categories.

The first, and easiest, is basically the “no chance” group. Every NBA player has incredible talent, but some aren’t projected to come anywhere near stardom. Several players on the lower levels of Portland’s roster fit this description. We don’t need to name them. Just figure everyone not mentioned after this is a long shot to become the team’s next leader.

The second group is comprised of semi-experienced players who have been mentioned as potential first options but haven’t quite fulfilled that role yet, at least not to the level required. Those are Anfernee Simons, Deandre Ayton, and a new candidate this year: Deni Avdija.

Of the three, Simons has the straightest runway. He’s a scoring guard coming into his prime. He’s capable of shooting and creative isolation offense. He fits the job description of your average NBA star. But Simons is a bit slight, doesn’t play defense very well, and hasn’t shown the instinct to take over the team even though he dominated in several individual games this season. He’s only 26 years old. That’s promising. He’s going into his eighth season and we’re still not sure of him. That’s less so.

Ayton was projected as a potential star when the Phoenix Suns selected him first overall in the 2018 NBA Draft. He’s had some good seasons in the interim, but never a breakout one. Like Simons, his defense is inconsistent. So is his scoring and overall effort. Ayton has turned into one of those players who always looks promising but seldom pays off to the level you expect. That’s not the profile of a star.

Unlike the other two, Avdija has commitment, a hard nose, and a perpetual motor. Sometimes he’s too active, a nice problem to have. He’s a defender. He can pass. He’s had outbursts of scoring too. Those characteristics recommend him. His overall talent level, three-point shooting, and scoring consistency may fall short of the threshold for stardom, though. Odds are Avdija’s theoretical peak is a fantastic second or third option in the mold of Scottie Pippen or Manu Ginobili. The Blazers would be more than lucky if he rose anywhere near that level.

For various reasons, it seems doubtful that any of these three incumbents will become a clear number one. It could happen, but it’s hard to forecast with a straight face.

That leaves Portland’s two young, highly-drafted prospects in Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. Henderson was tabbed as a star before the Blazers took him with the third pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. Sharpe was a wildcard in 2022 when Portland selected him seventh overall. He’s drawn loose comparisons to Kobe Bryant, but the miles between him and the Hall-of-Famer could connect the poles at this point.

Both Henderson and Sharpe have the advantage of being super-athletic. Either one is an eye blink away from the highlight reel at any given moment. Sharpe leaps higher than almost anybody else in the league. Henderson is a bulldozer when he heads towards the rim.

Translating that athleticism into actual production has been a work in progress. Henderson put up 12.7 points and 5.1 assists in 26.7 minutes per game in his second season. His shooting percentages were pedestrian. Sharpe scored 18.5 in 31.3 minutes per game in his third year. Those are better numbers than Scoot’s but still not out of this world.

Both Sharpe and Henderson lack consistency. Just as critically, neither has a devastating three-point shot at this point. That’s pretty much a requirement for guard scorers in this day and age.

In short, this is a work in progress. If Sharpe or Henderson ever becomes a star, we’ll have to acknowledge that they weren’t ready-made. That’s to be expected of players drafted young, without any NCAA experience. But it also means that nobody gets to bank on them until the ATM actually opens.

For all these reasons, the final answer to your question is, “Maybe?” That’s the fairest way to put it. We have to add this asterisk, though. When it comes to stars, surety is usually part of the package. Generation-defining luminaries like Victor Wembanyama and LeBron James come with marquees already attached, of course, but even guys like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards show signs, both on the court and in demeanor. Edwards was an All-Star by this third season. SGA was scoring 24 while shooting 51% from the floor, 42% from the arc in his third year. Obviously those are shiny examples, but you want something like that happening around the next great hope for your franchise. It hasn’t yet in Portland. Sometimes “maybe” becomes its own answer. (See also: Anfernee Simons and Deandre Ayton above.)

That said, both Sharpe and Henderson have an upward arc going and a couple of growth seasons left in which to expand it. We can see what happens with them and Portland’s other candidates. The Blazers should still be in the business of acquiring talent in the meantime. Not only is that smart, it’s likely to be necessary.

Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible!