CFP Preliminary Statistical Analysis Oregon Ducks College Football Playoff

I have acquired the complete film library for the 2024 seasons of each of the 12 teams selected for the College Football Playoff. I’ve already charted four of those teams from the Big Ten — Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State — and will move on to Tennessee and other teams on Oregon’s side of the bracket during the remainder of the month.

Prior to charting, I’ve compiled the complete play-by-play of these teams’ seasons and performed logical tests and spot checks against film to correct the records and eliminate garbage time. While these compilations aren’t quite perfect yet (in my experience there’ll still be about 1% of plays that require further correction which can only be caught once I’ve watched the tape), they can provide an acceptable rough estimate of fundamental per-play strength using standard metrics.

This article will provide a statistical summary of the six teams on Oregon’s side of the bracket using these play-by-play compilations. The reader is reminded that these will need to be updated with final corrections and with the postseason data, so may change a bit by the time I publish my individual opponent previews.

#1 Seed Oregon

Oregon is the top-performing team across the board of any of the six in this half of the bracket, with championship-caliber metrics in every area except efficiency rush defense. In the situational down & distance numbers, Oregon remains strong on 1st down rush defense at 59.4% success and a similar figure on 2nd & long (opponents have barely run on 3rd & long), while the Ducks are dragged down in this category by an aggregate 24.2% success rate against the run in 2nd / 3rd & short or medium (that is, any down but 1st down with six or fewer yards to go). On offense, the passing success rate performs at 59.9% efficiency if screen passes are excluded, which have only 53% success rate.

#8 Seed Ohio State

The Buckeyes’ offense is the most explosive of any of the Ducks’ potential opponents on this side, though their efficiency has continued to drop off since these teams met in week 7, largely due to offensive line issues but also a certain playcalling … stubbornness. More opposing offenses have discovered what Oregon did about Ohio State’s defense – that they can be run against for efficiency if not explosive gains, and their secondary can be challenged with a propensity to risk penalty flags. Overall, these metrics remain the highest of any team besides the Ducks on this side of the bracket.

#9 Seed Tennessee

The Volunteers’ offense is underwater in most categories, belying how much talent they have at every position. Scanning the play-by-play, it’s a strikingly hot-and-cold offense, with extraordinary explosive potential when they’re hot but prone to misfiring with their young quarterback and frequent drive-killing penalties and turnovers. On their best day, this is possibly the most dangerous offense on this side of the bracket, but it’s anyone’s guess if that’ll be gameday. The defense (and a remarkably light schedule) is what’s gotten them to the playoffs, with high level stats across the board, frequent forced turnovers, and quality short yardage defense as well. I’m uncertain why they’ve given up so many explosive passing plays since nothing in the other stats would predict it, and look forward to watching more of their film and figuring that out.

#4 Seed Arizona State

Arizona State has one of the stronger offenses on this side of the bracket, featuring a highly efficient run game and an explosive passing game. The Sun Devils don’t consistently get chunk yardage when running the ball (they’ll get super explosive rushes a couple times a game but can’t generate 10+ yard rushing regularly), while the passing offense has too many incompletions to be highly efficient but when they connect they really push the ball down the field in the 20-25 yard range. Situationally, they’re more likely to take and get their shots in leverage situations like 2nd & medium and 3rd & short, while they have a low success rate on 3rd & long when defenses know it’s coming. Defensively, this is the most perfectly average team of the six, with no standout high or low performances, although a huge differential in success rate between 3rd & short vs long which typically indicates a strong pass rush and weak secondary.

#5 Seed Texas

The Longhorns’ offense is middling-to-poor in all areas except the one that carries the day in modern college football: explosive passing, at which they’re hitting the championship threshold. The two downs when they really like to take shots are 2nd & short and 3rd & medium, with over 62% success rate and 22% explosiveness when passing in those situations. Texas’ defensive statistical profile is the most similar to Oregon’s of any team on this side of the bracket, with championship-caliber numbers everywhere except efficiency rush defense. Unlike the Ducks, however, the Longhorns have more even situational rush performance — better (though still several points underwater) on 2nd & 3rd downs, but worse on 1st downs — such that there’s no real point in saving runs for earlier or later in the series against them.

#12 Seed Clemson

Clemson has no particular statistical standouts, performing within one standard deviation of median in all stats I track. Their passing offensive profile is very similar to Tennessee’s — highly inefficient with constant incompletions, but the occasional super explosive play on which virtually all of their yards in any given game come — but without the excuse of a young QB or facing high talent defenses. The defense doesn’t have any standout stats and the situational profile matches certain teams like Washington which succeed simply by backing off and letting klutzy opponents make their own mistakes, though I won’t be able to verify that quality until I watch their tape.