Have The Portland Trail Blazers Waited Too Long To Move Jerami Grant?

The Portland Trail Blazers signed Jerami Grant to a five year, $160 million deal in July 2023, just as Damian Lillard asked to play his basketball elsewhere. The deal was largely panned by pundits, many surprised at the amount and shocked at the length.

While Grant had won a gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics, he was yet to sniff an All Star or All NBA honor when he arrived in Portland 12 months earlier. In fact, all he had proved was that he could handle high usage on a bad team while maintaining above-average defense.

Grant’s one season alongside Lillard was plagued by disappointment and injury to key Blazers as the franchise leant into losses down the stretch. But the rationale for Grant signing to remain in the city of his birth were obvious. A payday he was unlikely to get anywhere else.

The impetus for the Blazers was just as strong, despite what some pundits might say. Losing Grant and his contract slot for nothing would have been horrendous. Even if the Blazers were going to lean into the tank, they could still deal Grant for assets down the line.

But with 18 months and almost three trade transaction periods passed, Grant is still in Portland. So today we ask whether General Manager Joe Cronin has missed his opportunity.

The Player

Grant is a multi-talented two-way forward who can do pretty much everything except rebound at a decent rate relative to his size and position. Since Lillard’s departure, Grant has been asked to shoulder a lot of the offensive load, which has meant high usage and isolation basketball.

While Grant has excelled with the ball in his hands, he can also operate without it, thriving in the catch and shoot, trademarked by his “chip, no dip” corner three point shot. He’s also fine as a secondary and tertiary facilitator, able to put the pull on the floor while using elite athletic gifts to put pressure on the rim.

The 30-year-old forward started his career as a defender before adding offensive tools. But while his defensive impact has waned at the expense of increased offensive usage, Grant is still a versatile stopper, operating at both the point of attack and in help situations.

His ability stay in front of opponents is no doubt helped by the fact that he’s 6’8 with a 7’2 wingspan.

This Season

Through his first two Portland seasons, Grant averaged more than 20 points on 40-plus percent from three and more than 45 percent from the field on at least 22 percent usage.

The numbers have dropped noticeably this season, currently at 14.7 points on 37.9 percent from three and a horrendous 38.0 from the field on 19.8 percent usage. Among bigs, he ranks 123rd at the rim, 113th in effective field goal percentage, 109th from the midrange, 107th in points per shot attempt, 70th in assist rate. Not to mention, 125th in offensive rebound rate and 123rd in defensive rebound rate.

But in more positive news, he has been freed up by Toumani Camara and Deni Avdija on defense, thriving as a help defender, increasing his blocks from 0.6 to 1.0. He’s still taking the odd point-of-attack assignment but those are far less common, allowing him to defend closer to the rim.

The Market

It’s pretty clear the Blazers need to trade Grant. While still productive, the veteran forward is almost 31 and unlikely to be a key part of this team’s next vault up the standings.

I’ve previously contended that Grant’s deal — which still has three years, including a player option — is comparable to that earned by the third best player on some contending teams.

In the immediate aftermath of the signing, Grant’s form suggested he was the best player on the Blazers. Through the first three months of the 2023-24 season he averaged more than 23 points a game on 42 percent from three, 4.0 boards, 1.5 assists and 1.1 steals.

By the end of the season, his 21.0 points on 40.2 percent from three, 3.5 boards, 2.8 assists and 0.6 blocks would have continued to deliver a handsome package. So it was no surprise when rumors started to swirl about Grant moving to the Los Angeles Lakers for the price of two first round picks.

Not totally unreasonable considering his output.

While I’d have to imagine that the trade value for players of Grant’s ilk don’t tend to fluctuate too much, his 2024-25 form can’t have helped Cronin’s trade negotiations. Grant could still demand a couple of firsts but it’s more likely the Blazers settle for one right now. Not awful, but not optimum.

At the end of the day, contending teams will always need to two-way forwards like Grant with size and agility to reinforce rosters for championships runs.

The Impact of Grant Still Being On the Roster

Compared to the likes of Deandre Ayton and Anfernee Simons, Grant’s minutes aren’t as big a hindrance to the Blazers youngsters. But his presence has still pushed players with talent and potential to the bench to make way for Grant’s automatic starter status.

A potential parting with Grant has been made easier by the recent form of Toumani Camara and Deni Avdija who appear to be two pieces the Blazers can rely on at forward. Not to mention the fact that the Blazers’ burgeoning young core look ready to absorb Grant’s 12.2 field goal shot attempts — which is actually a reduction on previous seasons.

Have The Blazers Missed Their Chance?

The short answer is maybe. The situation is a little more complicated.

Sure, the longer he stays a Blazer, the less his eventual destination team has to keep him on the books. But unless he’s able to rediscover the level of play he exhibited last year, the eventual return could be worse. Especially if he’s not serving as a go-to on a young team in need of offensive punch.

When I see opinions calling for the Blazers to trade him not caring what the return is, I cringe. The Blazers still need to extract as much value as they can for Grant whose player type is still valued across the league.

Sure they might have to settle for one first round pick when they might have secured two a year ago, but there’s no way Grant is a negative salary. I have every confidence in the forward rediscovering his form but does that extra time come at the cost of young teammates he’s taking minutes away from?

Cronin has to find the balance between trading Grant now and getting a lesser return or wait another transaction cycle for him to optimize his value.