Football: Field Goal Gut Check

As of week 8, 2025, Oregon is coming off back-to-back weeks in which their opponent hit a field goal from 50 yards or more. Do you remember the last time Oregon hit a 50+ yard field goal? Andrew Boyle hit from exactly 50 yards last season against Michigan State. In the last ten and a half seasons, Oregon has recorded one season (2016) in which they had a longer field goal made than their opponents’ longest made field goal against them.

This places Oregon tied for last in the FBS with eight other programs: Marshall, Northwestern, Purdue, San Jose State, Tulane, Tulsa, Virginia, and Wake Forest. The good news is that the distribution of the number of seasons with a longer field goal than their opponents for the top winning FBS teams since 2015 reflects the same distribution for all teams. In other words, this doesn’t mean much in terms of winning or losing, but it can be an indicator of fan frustrations.

Quick note: All graphed percentages are on a [0-1] scale. Ex. 50% = .5

Going back to 2015, Oregon is just one of seven from 50 yards and beyond. This ranks 5th to last among Power Five teams in that span. However, Oregon is tied for 16th out of 70 P5 schools in 50+ yard field goals made against them, and is also 16th in 50+ yard field goal percentage allowed. Only nine P5 schools have seen more 50+ yard field goals made against them at a higher rate than Oregon.

Also of note, all nine of those schools have had more success than Oregon when kicking 50+ yards. Oregon fans belong to a group of seven or so teams with the right to complain about how unfortunate their favorite team has been in terms of long field goals.

When it comes to all field goal distances, however, the difference between Oregon and their opponents is not as glaring. Oregon is still performing worse than their opponents on aggregate, but this has more to do with opposing kickers. Oregon’s opposing kickers are 6th in percentage of made field goals (79.13%) among P5 teams since 2015. Oregon’s percent of made field goals is slightly better than average, coming in at 33rd (77.46%).

In 2025, Oregon opposing kickers haven’t missed. Oregon has made 8 of 12 field goal attempts, with Atticus Sappington hitting all eight of those on eleven attempts. While the four missed field goals are likely a point of frustration for fans, it should rise by season’s end. Atticus Sappington has been a reliable kicker over his career.

His career average (83.33%) is higher than every team’s average since 2015. This shows that finding consecutive or multiple reliable kickers is quite difficult in college football. I’m sure Oregon State, with a 40% team field goal average in 2025, would love to have Sappington still kicking for them.

Oregon has had mixed results kicking 40-49 yard field goals over the last decade. Overall, opposing kickers have performed better. Oregon has had seven seasons over the last eleven in which they hit a higher percentage of 40-49 yard field goals than the FBS median. That said, Oregon only exceeded 70% in four seasons. Oregon’s opposition combined to surpass the FBS median for 40-49 yard field goal accuracy in eight of the last eleven seasons, including every season since 2021.

Since 2015, Oregon has been roughly 5% better at home in terms of both percentage of field goals made and their opponent’s field goal percentage. Oregon is worse, however, when looking at 40-49 yard field goals. Oregon’s opponents are nearly 10% more accurate on 40-49 yard field goals when kicking in Autzen than they are on their home field. Oregon is roughly 4% less accurate when kicking 40-49 yard field goals in Autzen than they are on the road. Sappington is better on the road over his career (19/21 in away games vs. 21/27 when at home).

Lastly, I assessed clutch kicking stats by team. Over the last 10 seasons, Oregon kickers outperformed their opposition when kicking in the 4th quarter or overtime when the score is within 3 points (leading or trailing). Oregon kickers have matched opposing kickers when expanding the score differential to 7 points. Where Oregon has fallen short over the years is on longer kicks. In those clutch situations, when kicking a 40-49 yard field goal, Oregon kickers have combined to hit 50%, while opposing kickers have combined to hit 83.3%.

Despite all of these numbers in favor of Oregon opponents, none of this worries me. There’s not much to be done about how opposing kickers perform. I consider that a ten year statistical outlier. I have confidence in Atticus Sappington for the remainder of the 2025 season. He has been nearly automatic in his career within 40 yards and has only ever missed once per season from beyond 40 yards.

With his eligibility gone, I plan on analyzing portal kicker success. I hope to generate a statistical model that predicts a kicker’s success in the upcoming season. Look for that in a future article.