Dunc’d On: Takes Portland Trail Blazers Over, Expects Top-10 Defense

Nate: I think your case for the over is that these guys would be awesome on defense and I think Donovan Clingan is someone who really can make a difference there as a rim protector, and they’re just not going to have many if any weak links that they’re playing. Toumani Camara is an All-Defense level player. Jerami Grant still, even though he had a down year and couldn’t make a two-pointer, he still is someone you respect from the outside and he can guard his position pretty well. Deni Avdija is not someone that you’re going to attack either. They brought in Jrue Holiday, too… so, the one thing I think is interesting is it’s not like they were reliant on Anferenee Simons for their offense last year. I expected to look on there and be like, “Oh yeah, he had this like really good offensive rating relative to when he was off the floor.” And that’s not the case… I think these guys are easily going to be a top-10 defense. It would be a pretty big disappointment if they’re not. And you know, maybe just backup center will kill them. That that’s the only way I figure that it’s going to go awry.

Danny: I’m looking for the last time a team with a [top 10 defenses had a differential] in this range and it just hasn’t happened in a long time. I’m at 2020, and I still haven’t gotten to a single team that was top 10 on defense and had like a 34 win differential… I am deeply concerned about their offense… they just don’t have enough guys that can generate good shots, and they don’t even have a lot of guys who like, oh, if you can if they can figure that part of it out that are going to be great at converting. That’s not the biggest strength in Jrue Holiday’s game, though he can hit open shots, and and I really like Avdija… but I think they have enough guys that can get the ball down the floor. I think they can make that work. And they’re better on this end of the floor than any of the other teams in this vicinity, in terms of West over/unders, is on ANY end of the floor. And I think that’s something I feel comfortable hanging on.