Football: Defensive Front in the NFL Draft

Counting stats for defensive players only tell part of the story. Offense can be measured in straightforward terms—yards gained, points scored—but how do you easily measure the value of preventing something from happening? That’s why, across all sports, defense is notoriously difficult to quantify.

If you’re looking for the simplest way to gauge the value of individual defensive players in college football, start with the people paid millions to evaluate them: NFL scouts. The NFL Draft is the ultimate indicator of how professionals value talent.

In 2024, Oregon had four players from its front six drafted, including three defensive linemen:

That level of NFL-caliber talent was a big reason why the Ducks fielded one of the top defenses in the country—26th in yards per play allowed and 16th in points per game allowed. Replicating that success in 2025 will require significant growth from this year’s starters.

Using data from NFL Mock Draft Database, which compiles projections from mock drafts and big boards across the internet, we can get a sense of how Oregon’s 2025 defensive replacements stack up—at least for now.

2025 Actual Draft vs. 2026 Early Projections (direct replacements)

On paper, those projections look like a downgrade. But here’s why I’m not concerned.

Last preseason, when I looked at Oregon’s 2024 draft prospects, only Derrick Harmon was projected close to his eventual draft slot. Jordan Burch was widely seen as a Day 3 pick, while both Jamaree Caldwell and Jeffrey Bassa were projected as potential UDFAs. Fast forward to the actual draft, and all three significantly outperformed those expectations.

To compare apples to apples, here’s how the 2024 draftees and their 2025 replacements stack up based on preseason projections:

So, why did Oregon’s 2024 draftees make such big jumps? Simple—preseason mocks and big boards are wildly unreliable. The 2025 NFL Draft database had 199 big boards by draft time. Right now, for 2026, there are just 22. The depth and value of a class can’t truly be judged a year out. The truly special players, like Harmon and Uiagalelei, are obvious early. The rest emerge over the course of the season.

Looking ahead, I think it’s entirely realistic to expect:

All three have already shown flashes of NFL talent, and with the roles they’ll play in 2025, the opportunity is there.