Football: Oregon bye week effects

There has been a lot of talk this year about “maybe having a bye in the CFP isn’t a good thing because the 5 and 6 seed have an easier path” And while that debate rages on we won’t find out if that is true or not until the quarterfinals are played New Years Day. While people will continue to debate whether it is better to be a 1 or 2 seed with a bye or a a 5 or 6 seed with a so called easier opponent today I wanted to stop looking at how the rest of college football feels about this and look inwards at how the Ducks have performed after a bye week or going into a bowl game under Dan Lanning. In Dan’s first 3 seasons as head coach the Ducks have played 4 games coming off a bye and played in 2 bowl games with extended time off since the previous game. Across those 6 games they are:

· 5-1 overall and

· 4-2 against the spread

This would indicate that Dan’s staff does a pretty good job preparing for the next game with extended time off.

Let’s dig a little deeper. In 4 of these games both Oregon and Oregon’s opponent had the same amount of time off between games. In these games Oregon is:

· 3-1 overall

· 4-0 against the spread

The 2 games in which Oregon had more time off as compared to their opponent was

1. The 2022 Holiday Bowl in which Oregon beat UNC 28-27 but did not cover the 13.5 spread

In this game UNC played and lost the ACC championship game while Oregon was not in the PAC-12 championship game. Unlike the current scenario Oregon had no idea who their next opponent was as they did not find out they would be playing in the Holiday Bowl until UNC found out at the exact same time. Contrast that to the current situation where Oregon knows without a doubt that their next opponent will be either Ohio State or Tennessee

2. The regular season game against UCLA this season in which Oregon won 34-13 and was 4 points away from covering the 25.5 point spread

I think it is worth noting two things

1. Dillon Gabriel threw a red-zone pick 6 that swung the score by at least 10 points
2. Oregon had the ball up 34-13 with just over 6 minutes left in the game and started a drive at there own 21 yard line. They proceeded to go on a long methodical clock chewing drive down to the UCLA 16 yard line at which point they decided to kneel the ball and get out of the LA with a comfortable victory.

I think overall Dan’s teams have played very well with extended time off and regardless of who the opponent is I know 2 things.

1. While FPI gives Texas and Penn State a 84.4% and 69% chance of making the quarterfinals. Oregon has a 100% chance of getting to the quarterfinals

2. If you need to play Ohio State and Tennessee at some point it sure is a nice advantage to play them at the point where you had a Bye the week before and they had to play the week before